Oil holds near $88.
AI capital keeps moving.

U.S. futures edged higher, but oil and long-term yields kept the inflation question in the foreground.

S&P 500 futures were up about 0.2% and Nasdaq futures about 0.3% at the cutoff after Monday closes of 7,753.11 and 26,605.36. The Russell 2000 closed Monday at 3,017.40, down 0.6%.

Why it matters: Wednesday’s CPI report can shift expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. Rate-sensitive growth stocks, banks, homebuilders, bond investors, and companies refinancing debt are most directly affected. Watch the headline and core CPI readings at 7:30 a.m. Central Wednesday, then the 10-year Treasury response.

Brent held near $88 after settling Monday at $87.72, up 4.99%.

U.S.–Iran negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz remained stalled, and Brent’s two-day gain approached 5%. The move leaves energy costs as a live input into inflation expectations even before the July CPI release.

Why it matters: airlines, transport companies, chemicals producers, consumers, energy companies, and inflation-linked assets are affected first. Watch for a formal agreement, verified shipping-flow improvement, or another move toward $90; headlines alone do not prove that physical supply has normalized.

Intel upsized its common-stock offering to $20 billion, while Riot Platforms announced a $9.1 billion compute agreement with Anthropic.

Intel priced about 210.5 million shares at $95, a 2.6% discount to Monday’s close, to fund general corporate purposes including capital expenditure and working capital. Riot’s 20-year agreement covers 191 megawatts at its Rockdale, Texas campus and illustrates how power-rich crypto infrastructure is being repurposed for AI compute.

Why it matters: Intel shareholders face dilution, while foundry suppliers, data-center contractors, utilities, bitcoin miners, and AI developers gain new demand signals. Watch Intel’s spending discipline and customer wins, plus Riot’s delivery schedule, financing needs, and counterparty concentration.

Foreign investors sold Asian equities for a ninth consecutive month in July, led by Taiwan and South Korea.

Reuters reported $22.95 billion of foreign outflows from Taiwan and $6.26 billion from South Korea as investors questioned the pace and returns of AI spending. India received $2.12 billion of inflows, showing that the move was a regional rotation rather than a uniform exit from Asia.

Why it matters: semiconductor exporters, regional benchmarks, emerging-market managers, pension allocations, and currency hedges are affected. Watch whether chip-order data and upcoming AI earnings stabilize flows or whether allocation continues shifting toward India and less technology-heavy markets.

On Holding reported double-digit sales growth, but its outlook triggered a sharp pre-market decline; Riot moved higher after its results and AI agreement.

On reported second-quarter sales of CHF 850.3 million, up 13.5% year over year and 21.6% in constant currency. Despite that growth, the stock fell about 16% pre-market as investors reacted to the full-year sales outlook; On raised its gross-margin expectation and maintained adjusted EBITDA margin guidance. Riot rose about 14% pre-market following stronger revenue and the Anthropic compute agreement.

Why it matters: consumer-growth investors, athletic-wear peers, AI-infrastructure names, and crypto-mining comparables are affected. Watch management commentary from On and results after the close from Super Micro Computer, Lumentum, and CoreWeave for evidence on AI-server and optical-network demand.

No new material private-credit manager acquisition, direct-lending financing, fund close, documented stress event, redemption development, or regulatory change was confirmed by the morning cutoff. The latest tracked developments remain Ares’s second-quarter direct-lending originations, the Ares–PIMCO commitment to Eni, and CVC’s completed acquisition of Marathon Asset Management.